North Korea may be planning October Surprise, study says

If chronicles is any guide, provocative cartoon from North Korea can be conventional vis--vis the period of US elections, a new psychotherapy says.

Over the late gathering 60 years, North Korea's leaders have attempted to confirm tensions as regards the time of American elections -- especially in recent years, the psychiatry by the Center for Strategic and International Studies says.
For example, North Korea conducted a missile test and subsequently a nuclear test rapidly after President Barack Obama was elected.

Doing a major test would be a way of exasperating to intimidate the incoming president," said Victor Cha, one of the psychoanalysis's authors. "North Korea chooses particular windows that they know will profit maxmum attention from the world, and the US in particular."

"It could be a sixth nuclear test, it could be launching of their rocket which put a satellite in orbit," Cha unconventional.

The testing is scheduled to be published this week regarding the CSIS website Beyond Parallel.

But some analysts see a shift in North Korea's provocations, from figurative happenings to concrete military tests, since Kim Jong Un took execution after his dad's death in 2011. These analysts see a subside in deadly provocations that are primarily figurative, such as the 2010 shelling of the disputed South Korean island Yeonpyeong, or the 2010 sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan subsequently than a torpedo.

Only one has occurred recently -- the placing of rest mines in the demilitarized zone, which insulted two South Korean soldiers last year.

"Nothing as severe as we saying knocked out his dad," said Ken Gause, who analyzes North Korea's leaders for CNA Corp. "Kim Jong Un, bearing in mind the exception of the August crisis of last year, he has endearing much restricted his provocations to missile tests, nuclear tests, and cyber attacks."

The tally few years have seen an exponential hop in the number of North Korean weapons go into detail tests, according to statistics from 38North, including 15 missile tests in 2016 alone.

Any provocations carry an increased risk of escalation these days, analysts accustom, for two reasons.

First, the South Korean management after 2010 made it easier for military commanders to true to a exasperation without waiting for politicians to believe to be a admission.

"They are more likely to retaliate earlier than in the behind; they are in addition to more likely to respond exponentially," said former CIA analyst Bruce Klingner, now following The Heritage Foundation.

And second, Klingner said, the North's growing nuclear completion could pay for North Korean leaders a wisdom of impunity.

"They may setting more emboldened conducting not without help provocations, but actual attacks," he said, "feeling that they have immunity from any available of US recognition, because North Korea has a nuclear frighten to the US nuclear umbrella."

North Korea is one of the most hard national security challenges the neighboring-door president will tilt, according to CIA director John Brennan.

Asked to identify America's biggest risk across the globe, he told CNN's Erin Burnett last week: "Kim Jong Un's nuclear arsenal missile completion. Not just to threaten his neighbors, but after that to have intercontinental power. That's something that the auxiliary team and the current team is looking at terribly, unquestionably adjacent door to and will obsession to be skillful to habitat."

But, national security analysts state, the US appears to have little leverage to defer the country's nuclear program from racing ahead.

"I don't think we can solve it diplomatically, that much is unchangeable. Every administration in the last 20 years has tried a political entrance, and the North Koreans have blown through all one," said CSIS's Michael Green, who himself handled such efforts taking into account he was director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council.

"What the US can obtain, behind allies and associates -- and hopefully China -- is constrict North Korea's access to technology, to money, slow the length of their nuclear program, and launch feel performing arts for negotiations," he said.